Intervention Modelling
and Simulation
Quantitative and scenario-based modelling of programme interventions to test design assumptions, optimise delivery choices, and anticipate outcomes before resources are committed.
We build models that let programme designers test their assumptions, explore alternative delivery configurations, and stress-test their logic before the programme launches — when changes are still cheap and the evidence still matters.
Most programme failures are designed in, not implemented in. The decisions made at the design stage — which intervention logic to pursue, what delivery pathway to use, which assumptions to rely on — are the decisions that most determine whether a programme succeeds or fails. Yet these decisions are routinely made on intuition, analogy, and incomplete evidence. The Intervention Modelling and Simulation sub-unit provides an alternative: analytical rigour applied at the design stage, using modelling and simulation to test, refine, and optimise programme choices before resources are locked in. We combine quantitative impact pathway modelling with scenario analysis and pre-launch simulation to give programme designers and commissioners the evidence they need to make consequential decisions with confidence.
Quantitative Intervention Modelling
Development of quantitative models that trace impact pathways, results chains, and resource flow assumptions for planned programme interventions — giving designers a rigorous, testable picture of the logic underpinning their programme before launch.
Delivery Scenario Analysis
Structured analysis of alternative implementation approaches, testing how different delivery models, partnership configurations, and resource sequencing strategies are likely to perform across a range of institutional and contextual conditions.
Assumption Stress-Testing
Systematic identification and interrogation of the most consequential design assumptions: which are robust across scenarios, which are fragile, and which, if wrong, would fundamentally undermine programme performance.
Pre-Launch Simulation
Application of systems dynamics and agent-based modelling techniques to simulate how programme interventions are likely to behave in complex real-world delivery environments — revealing emergent dynamics, bottlenecks, and unintended consequences before they become operational crises.
Design Optimisation
Using modelling outputs to refine programme architecture, delivery sequencing, and resource allocation: translating simulation findings into actionable design improvements that reduce risk and increase the probability of achieving intended outcomes.
Need your programme design tested before launch?
We work with donors, governments, and programme management units.