Policy Modelling
and Simulation
Quantitative and qualitative modelling to test policy options, forecast impact, and strengthen the evidence base for reform decisions.
We build models that let policymakers explore the likely effects of alternative choices before committing resources. From health financing simulations to fiscal impact modelling, our work ensures that policy decisions are stress-tested against evidence, not made on intuition alone.
Policy decisions made without modelling are bets placed without odds. Whether designing a health financing reform, an education sector investment, or a fiscal policy shift, the range of possible outcomes is wide and the risks of unintended consequences are real. The Policy Modelling and Simulation sub-unit addresses this by providing the analytical infrastructure to test, compare, and refine policy options before they are locked in. We combine quantitative rigour with deep sector knowledge to produce models that are technically sound, contextually grounded, and genuinely useful for decision-making.
Quantitative Policy Modelling and Forecasting
Development of quantitative models to forecast the likely effects of policy choices across health, education, fiscal, and governance sectors, enabling decision-makers to compare alternatives on the basis of evidence rather than assumption.
Scenario Analysis and Stress-Testing
Structured scenario analysis that tests policy options and reform alternatives against a range of political, economic, and institutional conditions, identifying which choices are robust across multiple possible futures.
Simulation Modelling for Policy Impact Assessment
Simulation modelling for ex-ante policy impact assessment, including systems dynamics models, agent-based models, and other simulation techniques that reveal how policy interventions are likely to behave in complex real-world systems.
Data-Driven Policy Analytics and Evidence Synthesis
Analytical dashboards, indicator modelling, and evidence synthesis products that give policymakers and programme designers a real-time, data-informed picture of the systems they are trying to change and the levers available to them.
Need policy options stress-tested?
We work with ministries, donors, and policy units designing reform programmes.